Will the Tigers follow the IRA way in 2008?
The Tamil Tigers have been one of the most sophisticated armed rebel group in the world. Will they get smart this time to bring peace in Sri Lanka?
Too little,too late. With the Tigers at the receiving end, the government is not going to buckle down, unless the Tigers can offer something credible that will entice the International community to intervene. Post 9/11 the Tigers agreed to a cease fire and accepted a political resolution like 1987 Indo-Lanka peace accord. That CFA did not last long as both the groups violated the CFA terms almost every day. The Tigers have lost the east to the Troops with the split of Karuna faction and have been facing severe casualities from the Sri Lankan Air Force.
Sri Lanka is slowly but steadily moving towards a chaotic blood shed. The current government of Rajapaksa was voted to power by the Sinhalese majority on their platform to resolve the Sri Lankan crisis militarily by defeating the Tigers. The people have given them a free hand to go to war , but that has translated into thousands of innocents killed and millions displaced, which the government calls collateral.
Tigers should agree to a zero violence, unconditional agreement to get back to the peace process, an agreement to discuss all possible solutions including a federal system that will give enough teeth to the International community to pressurize the government.
Right now there are only two countries that have any say in Sri Lanka. Well technically three. Japan, India and ofcouse big nose US. The congress(I) lead minority government will feel the heat form their coalition partners if the Sri Lankan Government continues on its assault, if such an offer was made.
We can expect a massive strike from the troops after Feb 4th National day celebrations. They will not want any major casualties before that. The Tigers are wounded in both their military and International front. Recently several of their key weapons and fundraising agents in the western world have been arrested and they have taken severe pounding from the air force and ground troops in the North.
Overall in the recent past,the Tigers have risen in power that is proving to be a threat to India and US, two countries that have in the past agreed in principle to not provide military aid to Sri Lanka, but now have been doing so covertly or to protect their 'business interests'. China and Pakistan are two of Sri Lanka's biggest weapons suppliers.
India has put several of its air bases on alert watch after the Tigers launched their novice air force. The Tigers are only 30-45 minutes away from Kalpakkam in Tamil Nadu, the most important Nuclear weapons reactor in India. Ever since India's star PM Rajiv Gandhi was killed by a Tigers suicide bomber, India has been cautious in its approach with the Sri Lankan crisis and has a separate special wing under its intelligence department RAW to monitor the movement of the Tigers.
There are several historical and current reasons on why India has been concerned with Sri Lanka. In short, there are over 60 million Tamils living in India, US wanted to set up a military base in Sri Lanka during the cold war time, India trained and supported the Tigers and India's growing might as the regional super power and booming economy.
India will not support an independent Tamil Eellam as demanded by the Tigers, as it could lead to an separatist movement in TamilNadu in India, the fastest growing and most prosperous state in India in the new era. India, also has interests in oil exploration in sri Lanka and a new sea route that can save several days and billions in shipping cost. India would like to see a Federal system or have the Tigers defeated(which they know is not possible) but not a separate country to protect its own interest. India has recently provided to Sri Lanka radars to detect low flying air crafts to destroy the Tigers Air force.
US has special interest in Tigers issue now. It is not related to Sri Lanka, but to its own problems. The Tigers are considered the most modern and sophisticated armed militant group in the world. Recent analysis of Islamic terrorists have shown that they have been trying to replicate the Tigers methods. The attack on USS cole, Suicide bombings, IEDs, flank attacks in Afghanistan, World trade centre, Chechen attacks and many others have been copied from the Tigers. some reports say that there is some link between the Tigers and Islamic terrorist and militant groups, while others dispute that claim. My personal thought has been that since all of them procure weapons from the underworld and rogue nations, there might be contacts but no joint working or patronage of each other, in fact the Tigers would want to stay away from the Alqaida bunch in their own interest.
So the US now would like to see the Tigers dismantled or to resolve the crisis in Sri Lanka. US has provided radars and other support system to Sri Lanka. US also wants to use Sri Lanka to counter China and India to some extent. It is trying to work with India to use Sri Lanka as a base to counter China, which is using Burma to threaten India from the eastern front.
Among all, Japan has the best influence in Sri Lanka. 60-65% of Sri Lanka's foreign aid comes from Japan and it has a lot to do with Buddhist monks in those two countries. Monks are very powerful and politically influential in both countries. Over 90% of Sinhalese are Buddhists. Japan has done little to put pressure on Sri Lanka and will continue to remain silent because of its own political interests.
If my calculations are right, 2008 will be the biggest year in the nearly three decade Sri Lankan crisis and we will have to wait and watch how it goes from here. The Tigers might not get another chance. They have to get smart like the IRA and agree to a political settlement. They are at their weakest ebb now and with the noose coming around their neck, they need to act fast before it tightens up.
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