Power Play

Politics of war, reflects in media reporting.

20 people including 11 children have been killed in Sri Lanka and here are three media groups reporting it.

Tamil net - A pro Tigers news site
Tamil net has access to the Tigers and gives the most detailed information, especially when the suspicion is on the Government troops. You can see images, names of the victims and detailed updates. Validity of the reports can never be confirmed from neutral sources. Look at how elaborate the story is.

BBC- A neutral website
BBC makes an attempt to cover news with factual reports with its own source and other sources.

GOSL Government of Sri Lanka-
There is no news of this incident or other events where tamil civilians were killed! Wonder why they are trying to hide the story. Imagine a government that censures its own media page and does not report civilians deaths by its own air force or army.
update: the news has finally arrived, ofcourse denying their hand in the blast

Manley's full report Afghanistan, read it here

For all those foreign policy nerds,who don't like the bits and pieces like me and need the whole pie go here to read it all. I have told wifey that I am moving to the dog house to indulge in a good decent policy dabbing that I haven't had in a while (anyways that was coming soon !) A few of my friends working on counter terrorism have invited me to a debate on it later next week. Lets see what the Yankees have to say on it. Anyone in Canada want to discuss this over Coffee, let me know.

For the short version and news articles  visit here

At a later time, I will post a analysis report on it.

Helena Guergis should step down and be investigated.

This is a serious breach of security of national leaders. Minister Helena Guergis should not only be fired, but also refered to RCMP for violating national safety protocols and compromising the security of the leader and deputy leader of the official opposition.

"In publicly revealing in advance the itinerary of the delegation which included Deputy leader Michael Ignatieff and myself, Ms. Guergis violated the news blackout put in place for our protection, jeopardizing the security of the Afghan and Canadian military and civilian officials who welcomed and accompanied us during our trip," Dion said Thursday in a letter to Harper."

"Journalists were, for instance, forbidden from publicizing in advance details of Harper's March 2006 trip to the PRT for security reasons.

Rather than risk the road, Harper and his entourage travelled between the air base and the PRT in a small armada of U.S. helicopter gun ships.

Harper was taken in a heavily armed Black Hawk attack helicopter, one of two assigned to his journey while a twin-rotor CH-47 transport, or Chinook, with machine gunners positioned out its open hatches, ferried the remainder of the prime minister's staff and media travelling with him. "

When this is the kind of security that is provided to Harper, why would the Jr. Foreign affairs minister do an exact opposite with the Leader of the Opposition. Was this done intentionally or without the lack of the protocol? If she did not know the protocol, then she doesn't deserve to be in that position and if she did it knowing the exisitence of the protocol, then Harper should ask her to step aside and an investigation should proceed to find her motive behind it.

Why did Harper take 8 months for this?

"When Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier meets his Indian counterpart in New Delhi today, he is expected to raise the issue of a Canadian citizen who has been jailed in India for eight months.

Montrealer Saul Itzhayek was imprisoned last spring after authorities said he tried to cross the border into India from Nepal without a visa. In October, he was given a three-year prison sentence, sparking an outcry not only from his relatives in Canada, but also from Canadian MPs."

Why did the Conservatives take 8 months to act on this

There are thousands of people languishing in Indian jails lost for ever and we can't let a Canadian become statistics. India is notorious for corruption and bribes, but has a stable judicial and civil system that makes it easy to appeal and get things done properly.

What should have been a straight forward appeal process by the Government's representative in New Delhi has taken more than 8 months forcing an innocent Canadian to suffer in India. This would not have happened if he was an American or British. India is biased in its approach towards Canada, for its lack of effort in curtailing sikh terrorist activities and lack lustre show on the Air India bombing.  India continues to believe that Canada is a hot bed of Khalistan activities that has been shown by major Canadian media and hence slow when it comes to dealing with Canadian issues.

India should focus on keeping away terrorists, poachers, drug dealers  from its borders, not punish innocent business travellers. Innocent citizens should not be made puppets in the politics of powerful countries and their internal politics.

India should have done the honorable thing and released Mr.Itzhayek on goodwill, but the Conservatives have also failed to defend its countrymen. the question is we knew about it because the media reported it. Now how many innocent Canadians are languishing in foreign jails (not including the terror supporters) ?

Opps! think before that zipper goes down!

Having sex after false promise of marriage is rape according to a court in India.

"Establishing sexual relationship with a woman on a false promise of marriage amounts to rape, a court here has held while sentencing a man to seven years in jail for sexually exploiting her neighbour."

So, my desi friends if you are going to India looking for a bride, think twice before the zipper goes down. It ain't worth seven years in jail, that too Indian jail!

Will the Tigers follow the IRA way in 2008?

The Tamil Tigers have been one of the most sophisticated armed rebel group in the world. Will they get smart this time to bring peace in Sri Lanka?

Too little,too late. With the Tigers at the receiving end, the government is not going to buckle down, unless the Tigers can offer something credible that will entice the International community to intervene. Post 9/11 the Tigers agreed to a cease fire and accepted a political resolution like  1987 Indo-Lanka peace accord. That CFA did not last long as both the groups violated the CFA terms almost every day. The Tigers have lost the east to the Troops with the split of Karuna faction and have been facing severe casualities from the Sri Lankan Air Force.

Sri Lanka is slowly but steadily moving towards a chaotic blood shed. The current government of Rajapaksa was voted to power by the Sinhalese majority on their platform to resolve the Sri Lankan crisis militarily by defeating the Tigers. The people have given them a free hand to go to war , but that has translated into thousands of innocents killed and millions displaced, which the government calls collateral.

Tigers should agree to a zero violence, unconditional agreement to get back to the peace process, an agreement to discuss all possible solutions including a federal system that will give enough teeth to the International community to pressurize the government.

Right now there are only two countries that have any say in Sri Lanka. Well technically three. Japan, India and ofcouse big nose US. The congress(I) lead minority government will feel the heat form their coalition partners if the Sri Lankan Government continues on its assault, if such an offer was made.

We can expect a massive strike from the troops after Feb 4th National day celebrations. They will not want any major casualties before that. The Tigers are wounded in both their military and International front. Recently several of their key weapons and fundraising agents in the western world have been arrested and they have taken severe pounding from the air force and ground troops in the North.

Overall in the recent past,the Tigers have risen in power that is proving to be a threat to India and US, two countries that have in the past agreed in principle to not provide military aid to Sri Lanka, but now have been doing so covertly or to protect their 'business interests'. China and Pakistan are two of Sri Lanka's biggest weapons suppliers.

India has put several of its air bases on alert watch after the Tigers launched their novice air force. The Tigers are only 30-45 minutes away from Kalpakkam in Tamil Nadu, the most important Nuclear weapons reactor in India. Ever since India's star PM Rajiv Gandhi was killed by a Tigers suicide bomber, India has been cautious in its approach with the Sri Lankan crisis and has a separate special wing under its intelligence department RAW to monitor the movement of the Tigers.

There are several historical and current reasons on why India has been concerned with Sri Lanka. In short, there are over 60 million Tamils living in India, US wanted to set up a military base in Sri Lanka during the cold war time, India trained and supported the Tigers and India's growing might as the regional super power and booming economy.

India will not support an independent Tamil Eellam as demanded by the Tigers, as it could lead to an separatist movement in TamilNadu in India, the fastest growing and most prosperous state in India in the new era. India, also has interests in oil exploration in sri Lanka and a new sea route that can save several days and billions in shipping cost. India would like to see a Federal system or have the Tigers defeated(which they know is not possible) but not a separate country to protect its own interest. India has recently provided to Sri Lanka radars to detect low flying air crafts to destroy the Tigers Air force.

US has special interest in Tigers issue now. It is not related to Sri Lanka, but to its own problems. The Tigers are considered the most modern and sophisticated armed militant group in the world. Recent analysis of Islamic terrorists have shown that they have been trying to replicate the Tigers methods. The attack on USS cole, Suicide bombings, IEDs, flank attacks in Afghanistan, World trade centre, Chechen attacks and many others have been copied from the Tigers. some reports say that there is some link between the Tigers and Islamic terrorist and militant groups, while others dispute that claim. My personal thought has been that since all of them procure weapons from the underworld and rogue nations, there might be contacts but no joint working or patronage of each other, in fact the Tigers would want to stay away from the Alqaida bunch in their own interest.

So the US now would like to see the Tigers dismantled or to resolve the crisis in Sri Lanka. US has  provided radars and other support system to Sri Lanka. US also  wants to use Sri Lanka to counter China and India to some extent. It is trying to work with India to use Sri Lanka as a base to counter China, which is using Burma to threaten India from the eastern front.

Among all, Japan has the best influence in Sri Lanka. 60-65% of Sri Lanka's foreign aid comes from Japan and it has a lot to do with Buddhist monks in those two countries. Monks are very powerful and politically influential in both countries.  Over 90% of Sinhalese are Buddhists. Japan has done little to put pressure on Sri Lanka and will continue to remain silent because of its own political interests.

If my calculations are right, 2008 will be the biggest year in the nearly three decade Sri Lankan crisis and we will have to wait and watch how it goes from here. The Tigers might not get another chance. They have to get smart like the IRA and agree to a political settlement. They are at their weakest ebb now and with the noose coming around their neck, they need to act fast before it tightens up.

Vijay